Has Delhi Dealt a Blow to Saffron Surge?

In the latest Assembly elections of Delhi, the voters gave a thumping majority to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) by electing its representatives on 67 of the total 70 seats contested, while the candidates of Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) won the remaining three seats. Parties like Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) among others, returned empty handed. By looking at these numbers, it’s obvious that the voters of Delhi have rejected national parties (BJP, Congress, etc. etc.). But what’s significant here is the meteoric rise of Modi-Shah combine and that of BJP has been halted. Delhi has proved that Modi-Shah and BJP too are not indispensable. The loss of BJP is attributed to many factors including the choice of its chief ministerial (CM) candidate – Kiran Bedi, lack of co-ordination amongst party office bearers and off course the strong pro-hindu (and anti-other religion) statements by Rashtriya Swayam Sangh (RSS) members, patrons of Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and some of the elected representatives of the 16^th Lok Sabha (Sakshi Maharaj, Swami Agnivesh, Yogi Adityanath, Niranjan Jyoti to name a few). But has the BJP lost the elections so badly? Does 67-3 present a real picture? Let us look at some more numbers to make a more informed decision.

Votes Polled

The vote share of AAP rose from 29.49 per cent in 2013 to 54.3 per cent in 2015, an addition of quarter of more votes to its kitty. In stark contrast, Congress’ vote share slumped to 9.8 per cent from 24.55 per cent in the previous elections. Similarly, BSP saw its vote share declined to 1.3 per cent from 5.35 per cent. While on the other hand, the vote share of BJP reduced by just one per cent from 33.07 per cent in 2013 to 32.1 per cent in 2015. This shows that, AAP has gained at the cost of Congress and BSP, while the situation is not that grave for BJP as it appears to be.

Urban Appeal Intact

Traditionally, BJP is known to be more urban centric and has its core voters within these pockets because of its pro-business appeal. Surprisingly, an urban voter who is relatively more educated vis-à-vis a rural voter and doesn’t really votes along the religious lines, has still maintained its allegiance to BJP. Party’s share of total votes polled shows that it still allures to urban voters and they are not backing off – not yet, in spite of its members making provocative statements along the religious lines and numerous efforts to suppress the minorities (both Christians and Muslims). So what is keeping the voter base intact – Is it the promise of “Acche Din” or the polarization efforts are yielding results? You may never know the true facts but what is confirmed for sure, is that the minorities in Delhi deserted the so called secular parties in favour of a stronger AAP to counter the rising saffron threat.

Taking positives from the Delhi elections, BJP heads to its biggest test since the 2014 general election with Assembly elections due in Bihar (2015), West Bengal and Assam (2016) and Uttar Pradesh (2017). All the states are known to be sensitive, both on inter and intra community aspects.

First Stop - Patna

In Bihar, it will be a multi cornered fight between the ruling Janata Dal United (JDU), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, BJP along with Lok Janshakti Paty (LJP) and the newly formed Hindsutan Awam Morcha (HAM) (though there is a high possibility of HAM joining hands with BJP and LJP before the elections). Irrespective of the election becoming a multi cornered fight, the BJP will use polarization tactics to the maximum to exploit the delicate caste equations in the state to its advantage. And guess what, it will be successful as voters will be split between RJD, JDU and Congress. As it is, the party has an upper hand in the state post the Manjhi debacle. 

Mother or Didi – Who’s Legacy will it be?

The recent attacks on Nobel Laureate Mother Teresa by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat is aimed at attacking Christian missionaries and the Assembly elections in West Bengal due in 2016. Mother Teresa lived and worked out of Kolkata (earlier Calcutta). Add to this the constant influx of Bangladeshi immigrants (read Muslims), who apart from being a national threat, are also an easy target for vote bank politics and the state of West Bengal has a sizeable percentage of minority votes. So far, the journey of Trinamool Congress (TMC) has been volatile, courtesy their mercurial CM Mamata Banerjee and the close link of party office bearers with Saradha Scam. The opposition (CPI, CPM and the clan) is almost on their death bed and can’t offer a significant fight. As for BJP, the party’s presence in Eastern India is negligible and this presents a good opportunity for the party to make inroads. The only way the BJP can succeed is by breaking TMC, either by using CBI in Saradha Scam or polarizing the voters. It’s doing both. As off now, Mamata is untouchable and the recent by-elections are a proof of that. So brace yourself for more communal attacks.

Road UP

The approach road to Uttar Pradesh (UP) assembly elections will not depend much on the outcome of the election results in the states of Bihar and West Bengal. If the polarization tactics yield result, it makes for a strong reason to follow the same route (rather there will be an acceleration in attacks and scathing remarks along the religious lines) but even these tactics fail in the two states, the BJP will still go ahead with the same plan. UP has the highest probability of delivering on the basis of polarization amongst all Indian states as BSP and Samajwadi Party (SP) will never fight together, thus leading to division of secular votes.

Silence was Defeaning

Though, PM Modi finally spoke against the attacks on Churches and Christian schools in the country, it is a mere eye wash and an old game of “Good Cop and Bad Cop” is being played to the audience’s gallery. And PM here is trying to maintain his political capital, ala a good cop.