AB KI BAAR MODI SARKAR

The verdict for the long drawn Indian General Elections is out (final official numbers are still awaited) and Ab Ki Baar it will be Modi led NDA Sarkar. My congratulations and good wishes to NDA and its PM designate for an astounding victory. He and his team of experts and professionals, who worked tirelessly in the background, crunching tons of data, deserve every credit for the campaign which took the nation by storm. The campaign which went on for more than six months spoke primarily of growth and development, reviving the sagging manufacturing base in the country, boosting investor sentiment, job creation, and of course hindutva.

I interpret the decisive mandate for NDA of which BJP itself crossing the half way mark (272 seats) in multiple ways. Some opinions are optimistic just like the ones who voted for them, some cautious on the lines of the ones who voted against them and some completely neutral.

Let’s start with optimism or should I say “Acche din aane wale hai”. The clear mandate to NDA lends solidity to the government formation and stability and consistency in the decision making for the next five years. In fact, the NDA comes within the kissing distance of 364 seats or 2/3^rd majority (of the total 543 seats) required in the Lower House for the passage of important bills and amendments to the existing ones. Next, with the numbers in BJPs favour, the allies will not have a stronger say and will not be able to arm twist the government. The second largest party in the NDA fold is Shiv Sena with 19 MPs. This shall help in expediting the decision making process.

The business community is jubilant as Modi and BJP are known to be pro business. The Sensex is only moving northward. New projects are expected to roll (there were many waiting for the elections) and this shall lead to new job opportunities and increased consumer spending. (Though I personally don’t see any sign of cut back in spending. Take a walk around the shopping streets, restaurants and coffee shops in any city and you will get to know what I am talking off). Also, the new government will reap benefits of the measures taken by the outgoing government, some of which are already showing positive signs. Keeping all this in mind, I said I am hopeful and looking forward to “acche din”.

My neutrality originates from the short to medium term outlook. Modi may be credited with the development of Gujarat but he certainly doesn’t have a magic wand to turn things around overnight. The key measures for the economy and the structural changes required in the bureaucratic process will take at least two to three years or even more to take shape and the benefits will arise post that. The rise in Sensex and Rupee value is sheer optimism and the same will come down to justifiable levels once the euphoria settles down. The thorn in the economic revival is the persistent high inflation. Measures taken to curb inflation (like controlling liquidity in the banking channel) will pose a hindrance to growth with capital becoming expensive. Also, the continued global economic uncertainty adds to the woes. I don’t know how Modi will address that.

Now my cautious approach originates from being one amongst the minorities of this nation. The prime agenda of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological parent organization for hindu groups like BJP, Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), Bajrang Dal and many other right wing organisations is promotion of hindutva and anti-muslim sentiments. With BJP getting a majority on its own, acche din for muslims may be over. Though the PM designate in his campaigns concentrated largely on growth and development and gave enough signals of this through his speeches and even pastel hues of his kurtas and jackets. But it’s the sidekicks like Amit Shah, Praveen Togadia, Muthalik, Giriraj Singh amongst host of others who are fanning this ideology into main stream. Instead of punishing the culprits of Muzaffarnagar riots, BJP turned them into heroes and Modi readily shared the dais with them. It’s this hindu fanatism and polarization and the strong under currents along with the backing of RSS makes it a scary proposition. Though in his victory speech, Modi repeatedly reiterated that his government is for every citizen of the nation and will take everyone along. It will be an inclusive growth. Hope he keeps his words and also succeeds in containing the undercurrents from others.

So, I for one can say that I am “CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC”.